BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – I would venture to guess there’s nothing that bores fans of college athletics more than the House settlement.
Roster limits, athletic budget caps, arguments over transfer rules and NIL guard rails aren’t why you put an Indiana pennant on your wall as a kid. Most folks – and I include many sportswriters, coaches, players, etc. – have little interest in how the sausage is made.
But much like your mortgage or your lease agreement or similar legalize, there’s always something that puts on paper how things work.
That’s what makes this such a chaotic time for college athletics – nothing is written on paper in ink at the moment..
The old rules of how college athletics worked were encoded by the NCAA. That is, until a generation of college athletes (and their handlers) realized that most of what was in those rules is illegal. They sued, they cleaned the NCAA’s clock and for the last half-decade we’ve seen a revolutionary period of change.
We’re still deep into that revolution. One that has made a mockery of amateurism and even the concept of “student-athlete” itself. Many observers of college sports openly talk about how college sports should be separated from the colleges themselves and run as a semi-pro/professional enterprise.
The problem is that a significant portion of the marketplace – i.e. the fans – never asked for these changes and are bewildered by many of them. College athletes getting paid and moving at will are still new concepts to folks who grew up with the opposite landscape. Many fans like college sports precisely because they are not professional. Many believe in the notion of athletes using their talent to also gain an education.
The establishment – the NCAA, the conferences and the schools they represent – have been trying to fight back and claw back some semblance of what they consider to be normalcy.
It’s a two-front battle. The House settlement and congressional action are the two prongs in that front.
The House settlement goes a long way toward resolving current litigation. It’s a settlement that combines three different lawsuits against the NCAA and its schools, which were almost certainly going to lose. Without the House settlement, the NCAA and its schools could be on the hook for $12 billion – an extinction-level event, at least in terms of maintaining the status quo.
The settlement knocks the NCAA penalty down considerably, to $2.8 billion, but the trade-off is a system where schools directly compensate athletes. They will receive 22% of all power conference revenue, an athletic department cap of roughly $20 million that can be spent on athletes across the breadth of the athletic department. It also creates a clearinghouse apparatus that will make any NIL deals over $600 subject to “fair market value.”
It will also eliminate scholarship limits in favor of roster limits – part of the settlement that has become problematic.
The final hearing for the House settlement was last Monday, but Judge Claudia Wilken wanted changes in the language of the settlement to account for the many partial-scholarship athletes who will lose their roster spots due to the new roster limits. She expressed a desire to have those athletes grandfathered into keeping their spots. She also wanted changes made to protect future athletes bound to this settlement.
The problem is that the member schools have already been building rosters and determining budgets assuming the House settlement would be in place. Restoring those spots would be costly.
A story published by Yahoo’s Ross Dellinger on Sunday suggested the NCAA might not agree with Wilken’s recommendation. That sets up a high stakes game of chicken between whether the breadth of the settlement is worth approving over the exclusion of one preferred principle in it.
There is another hearing on Monday. Final approval of the settlement could happen, but it is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, the NCAA and conference commissioners were in Washington last week lobbying Congress to codify much of the House settlement into law for an anti-trust exemption for the NCAA. It could also write into law the notion that student-athletes would not be employees. Gentlemen, start your billable hours on that particular thorny topic.
Representatives of both parties are trying to work out a solution, but it’s just in the talking stages for now. The college powers-that-be feel congressional action is essential given the House settlement solves many issues, but does not prevent future litigation that has essentially made college athletics an unregulated enterprise.
Why is all of this important? Part of it is the timing.
The basketball transfer portal has been drastically affected by the legal landscape. Any deals signed (and paid to athletes) before the House settlement goes into effect will not be bound by the fair market value test.
So it’s a race for athletes to get their bag of cash. Asking prices for basketball players have skyrocketed – well into seven figures for the best of the best. Estimates suggest that the cost of doing NIL to amass a basketball roster will at least double for the 2025-26 season.
Basketball is a big deal, but football drives the train at most schools. On Wednesday, the second football portal window opens.
College brass hoped the House settlement would be done and dusted by the time the football window opened, but that is looking unlikely.
If basketball asking prices skyrocketed, extrapolate what football might be? Yahoo estimated $50 million might be paid out to players in this portal cycle.
If you wondered why Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava got into the portal – despite heavy criticism for lack of loyalty – now you know why.
Under Curt Cignetti, Indiana football has benefitted from the portal and hasn’t lost anyone of consequence. Spring practice ends Thursday with the Spring Game. It will be fascinating to see if anyone thought to be safe in Indiana’s hands will test the market to get rich quick.
Of course the other side of the coin is that if Indiana can bring the cash, what impactful players might the Hoosiers be able to bring aboard?
It’s crazy and strikes me as unsustainable. The boosters who largely fund these deals will eventually run out of patience feeding the cash machine – even at football-mad schools.
Many have suggested cutting out the student-athlete model to make athletes employees. This would then lead to collective bargaining on contracts for athletes that would add control to the enterprise. Wilken seemed to endorse that plan of action without having the power to rule on it in during last week’s House settlement hearing.
Would collectively bargaining solve anything or create another headache? This isn’t like pro sports where as it is now, schools would collectively bargain individually. I’m no labor lawyer, but even I can assume that any kind of gentlemen’s agreement to have some sort of standard collective bargaining among power schools would run into collusion problems.
Besides, schools have demonstrated zero restraint in throwing money at athletes in an open market. What makes anyone think collective bargaining would be different? There’s not a chance any school will willingly enter into a collective bargaining agreement that puts it at a competitive disadvantage.
Is it possible conferences could negotiate on behalf of their members? We’re through a looking glass there that is beyond my pay grade.
All of this is against the backdrop of an increasingly alienated fanbase. If fans turn away from the sport, whether it’s a trickle or a flood, will there be money to throw around? Will the media rights deals that fuel this phenomenon in the first place begin to decrease?
I’ve gone too far, as those are not immediate issues. What is confronting college athletics this week are issues that are monumental enough.
If you were hoping from a respite from this revolution? I’m afraid things are just getting started.
- HOW HOUSE SETTLEMENT INFLUENCES RECRUITING: The House settlement, and when it gets implemented, is having a huge effect on transfer portal movement and cost. CLICK HERE.
- DARLING INTEREST:Indiana has reached out to Big Sky MVP Dylan Darling, a sharpshooting guard.CLICK HERE.
- CONERWAY TO VISIT:Sun Belt Player of the Year Tayton Conerway will reportedly visit Indiana.CLICK HERE.
- MIKE BARGEN TO JOIN STAFF:Former Bradley associate head coach Mike Bargen will join the Indiana staff. He's worked with head coach Darian DeVries before.CLICK HERE.
- KENNY JOHNSON TO JOIN INDIANA STAFF:Kenny Johnson will join Darian DeVries' coaching staff.CLICK HERE.
- CIGNETTI DISPLEASED WITH PRACTICE EFFORT:Curt Cignetti did not mince words in describing Indiana's habits in their 10th spring practice.CLICK HERE.
- HEMBY BRINGS OPPONENT PERSPECTVE TO INDIANA:Running back Roman Hemby played against Indiana three times in his career at Maryland. His knowledge of that, and Indiana's 2024 turnaround, is what impressed him and made him a Hoosier.CLICK HERE.
